A Peek at the Draft With Matt McGuire

On Saturday, I had the chance to chat with NFL Draft Expert Matt McGuire from Walterfootball who took time out of his Easter Weekend to discuss the Buccaneers potential bounty this April. The draft is only a few weeks away and things are revving up. With the combine out of the way, Pro Days nearly finished and private workouts soon to begin, draft boards across the league have taken shape and Miami is squarely on the clock. Pewterkrew gets a sneak peek into what Gruden and Co might do from an expert and diehard Bucs fan…

D.Breault: I'd like to thank Matt McGuire from Walterfootball.com for stopping by to chat about the Buccaneers draft. Matt is a well-respected expert on the NFL draft and happens to be a huge Tampa Bay fan.

D.Breault: So Matt, we've seen Tampa bring in quite a few free agents so far in an attempt to add depth across the board. They seem to be in pretty good shape entering the draft and may be able to pick the 'best player available' but what do you think are the Bucs last few needs to fill?

Matt McGuire: Well, Jon Gruden and Bruce Allen simply have to be considered to have done one of the best jobs on the free agent market so far. I like that they haven't overpaid for anyone and they fill a lot of needs on their teams in positions which they feel are good fits. Players like Marques Douglas (at under tackle) and Eugene Wilson (at cornerback) could have a big impact on the Bucs for the 2008 season.

Matt McGuire: The two positions that I consider the Bucs to have the biggest needs at are, as to no surprise, wide receiver and cornerback.

D.Breault: With Wilson in the fold does that lessen the need for a corner this year?

D.Breault: And, can Wilson even still play corner?

Matt McGuire: Yes and no. Yes, corner isn't a glaring need now that he was signed, but do we really think Ronde Barber and Phillip Buchanon are going to be with this team three years down the road? I think the Bucs will look to fill a zone corner in this draft (in the first three rounds) to get younger and more athletic at that position, since the Alan Zemaitis experiment didn't work out.

D.Breault: Yeah Zemaitis was a bust. I know Barber's old, but you don't think Buchanan is a long term answer? Maybe not as the top guy, but he could serviceable as a number 2 or 3 corner.

Matt McGuire: I think Wilson can play corner in the Bucs scheme. It could be very similar to Tanard Jackson moving from corner at Syracuse to safety in Tampa. I think Wilson is a better fit as a Tampa 2 zone corner than as a free safety with the Patriots. The Tampa 2 doesn't emphasize man press coverage, it is about being physical, smart, and being an overall good corner. It hides the lack of recovery in cornerbacks if it is there (like Ronde Barber).

Matt McGuire: Buchanon is a good backup in this league, but I think he gets beat to much and he can't lock down the guy across from him ... playcallers seem to pick on him.

D.Breault: Anyone in particular that jumps out at you in this class of corners?

Matt McGuire: I think some corners the Bucs will be looking at are Mike Jenkins or Aqib Talib at No. 20, or Terrell Thomas, Antonie Cason, or Brandon Flowers in round two.

Matt McGuire: In the later rounds (3-5) I think Chevis Jackson, Tyvon Branch, and Dwight Lowery would be solid options for Tampa. They also expressed interest in DeJuan Tribble of BC at the Senior Bowl.

D.Breault: Branch looks like he could sneak into round 2.

Matt McGuire: Well there are always reaches in the draft, it's possible but I highly doubt it.

D.Breault: Now, its easy to look at some of the receivers in this class, the big guys like Sweed and such, and say that they are prototype WC receivers, but who best fits the Bucs scheme?

Matt McGuire: Gruden loves to keep the passing game short and sweet, which means a lot of slants and out routes. I like Sweed, as you mentioned, to be a good fit in the Bucs scheme. I think if the Bucs are looking at a deep threat they have to consider DeSean Jackson and his ability to make plays on special teams. People questions his work ethic and how coachable he is...this is very very high on Gruden's list on what he wants in a receiver I think. Jackson isn't a slant guy, he is scared to go over the middle, but he would give Tampa the deep threat they lacked against the Giants which is a big reason why they lost that game.

D.Breault: Yeah the Galloway injury really killed them.

Matt McGuire: Now you don't draft based on a playoff lost obviously, I'm just making the point that at some time they will lose Galloway. There are also a lot of very good receivers in the middle of this draft though and Tampa could find some very solid options there as well. Tampa is going to be very open minded in this draft about what they want to do.

Matt McGuire: I think players such as Jordy Nelson, Mario Manningham, Earl Bennett, Keenan Burton, and Lavelle Hawkins are all possbilities for the Bucs in that 2nd-3rd round draft range.

D.Breault: Devin Thomas seems like the cure for what ails them. He's a big guy with 4.4 speed who creates after the catch, what do you think the chances are the Bucs nab him in Round 1? Think he'll still be there or is that too high for him?

Matt McGuire: Well I have said this many times and I truly feel like the wide receiver run will start with the Eagles at No. 19 if they don't choose to trade up. If the Eagles don't take Thomas (which is who I have them going with in my last mock draft) the Bucs could consider Thomas, but I'm not extremely high on the kid. I don't see the hands. I don't see the toughness. The receiver position is so hard to come in the NFL and dominate right away at. All rookies take time, but I think Thomas will take more time than the average receiver prospect. He has a lot of potential, but he also has a very high bust factor. It just depends on what the teams feel like he can do for their offense, and I don't know that Gruden will like Thomas much because his game isn't very mechanically sound.

D.Breault: Thomas may take a hit thanks to former Spartans Plaxico Burress and Charles Rogers, but I think if a coach schemes to get the ball in his hands and keeps his responisiblity simple he could have a pretty good impact rather quickly.

Matt McGuire: It is hard to keep responsibility simple in a west coast offense though.

D.Breault: they can still work him out of the slot and get the ball in his hands on screens and reverses and such. His run-after abilities are close to elite.

D.Breault: Manningham ran much better and looked real smooth at his Pro Day. Is that enough to get him back into round 1 or has the combine killed that possibility?

Matt McGuire: Absolutely not. I think pro days are the most overrated thing in the NFL Draft "preseason." I am not sold on the forty times. I am not sold on the vertical jumps (players improve here on 5+ inches just a few weeks after the combine). It seems like the forty times are usually 0.1-0.15 off. I think Manningham is a good overall receiver, but I will not forget that forty time since his game was supposed to be predicated on getting up the field. He could end up being Chad Johnson, he could end up being David Terrell.

Matt McGuire: I feel like his range is mid second round to mid third round.

D.Breault: So any prediction on Tampa's 1st rounder?
Matt McGuire: When I make predictions especially in the mid part of the first round (and on) I love to discuss a term I have coined and already used here called "draft range". It is the kind range of prospects I could see a team going with at a certain pick or round. I think Tampa will consider a lot of prospects at No. 20. They can't pass up on Matt Ryan there, and I think him falling is very possible if the Ravens pass him up at No. 8. Limas Sweed, James Hardy (if his character concerns check out well), DeSean Jackson, Aqib Talib, Ryan Clady, and Chris Williams are all players I think are in Tampa's range at No. 20.

Matt McGuire: I think it is very wrong to just guess one prospect because that isn't what teams do. In the war room they consider several players, and it is what I do in predictions when I feel a range is more wide. Obviously the No. 20 pick has more range than the No. 4 pick.

Matt McGuire: Oh yeah I forgot Mike Jenkins from USF. He definitely fits Tampa's scheme and Monte Kiffin supposedly loves him.

Matt McGuire: Jenkins is a versatile corner, and I think that is why Kiffin likes him. He's a Brian Kelly type, who when he was younger was a shut down cornerback.

D.Breault: Ok, that all makes sense. Now since you mentioned Ryan and the tackles (Clady and Williams), I'd like to ask you about the Bucs past, present and future at those two important positions. It's been a long time since they have had anyone who could be considered elite at those positions and right now there's a young, still somewhat unproven kid at LT and a QB whose pushing 40. Is it time for them to start thinking long term at these positions and is David Penn the solution at LT?

Matt McGuire: I think in this draft especially (since they have very few glaring needs) that Allen will emphasize value rather than pure need. Penn could be the guy, but I don't think they are sold on him. He has some talent, but he is very raw and I think he needs to get stronger. A left tackle at No. 20 I feel is a long shot, but I certainly won't rule it out if Allen feels like he is getting the best value with Clady or Williams at No. 20. I think the Bucs would be best to stick with Petitgout and Penn for next season then address it in the 2009 Draft (which is loaded at left tackle), but I think if they take a Williams or Clady I would hardly call it a bad move because it would be a great investment in the offense.

D.Breault: With the depth at other positions of need, I think it would be hard to pass on a LT like Clady or Williams.

Matt McGuire: Exactly. The Bucs have many options in this draft, I think it is wrong to go in with a very narrow mindset.

D.Breault: With Garcia being a little fragile and taking some big hits, keeping him upright might be the most important thing to achieve no matter what they do.

Matt McGuire: Well Tampa is certainly set at LG, C, RG, and RT. Then again I don't think it would be a bad idea to invest more in receiver or corner either. The Bucs aren't going to fill all their needs this offseason, this is always an on-going process. The Bucs are the clear favorite in the NFC South. I think they should emphsaize value a lot and avoid reaching. Based on their past few drafts, that theory reflects exactly what I'm talking about.

D.Breault: Gruden and Allen, fair or not, have earned a bit of a reputation as being unable to draft and develop talent, do you think that's prudent?

Matt McGuire: Barrett Ruud. Tanard Jackson. Aaron Sears. Jeremey Trueblood. Davin Joseph. Cadillac Williams (before he had a horrendous OL and injuries which isn't Gruden's fault). Earnest Graham. Alex Smith is solid. They didn't develop Jeff Garcia at all, Gruden had no part in the success of the offense. So yeah I think Jon Gruden and Bruce Allen have absolutely no idea what they are doing lol.

D.Breault: lol no wavering in that opinion.

D.Breault: So are they the men for the job?

Matt McGuire: Well, Tony Dungy certainly did everything he could to get the offense on the right track. Rich McKay was just a master at the draft in his term (joking). Personally, I think the average Buc fan is too hard on these guys and their expectations are, quite frankly, ridiculous. I remember hearing "fire Jon Gruden" after they lost to the Giants in the playoffs and Eli Manning played out of his mind... then they went on to win the Super Bowl.

Matt McGuire: Is Gruden stubborn at times, yes he is. But I think he is a damn good football coach that demands a lot from his players.

D.Breault: So the real questions becomes then: Can this group win a Super Bowl?

Matt McGuire: Who thought the Giants were going to win the Super Bowl last year?

D.Breault: Touche.

Matt McGuire: I can't rule out the Buccaneers at all. They have a great nucleus of young talent. I think they are good enough to win the division again. It is so hard to win the Super Bowl. That expectation is too high. I expect my team to give full effort and my front office to put together some good all-around talent ... and I think the Bucs do that.

D.Breault: Okay last question and Ill let you get back to the holidays.

D.Breault: As a Bucs fan, anyone in particular your rooting for them to draft?

Matt McGuire: Hmm, I haven't really thought about that. In the round five I would love if they took Steve Johnson, WR, Kentucky. Perfect fit in Gruden's WCO. He has a good attitude. He made a ton of clutch catches last season. Great athleticism after the catch. I'm a big Steve Johnson fan, I've been on his bandwagon for a while.

D.Breault: Oooh, a sleeper....

Matt McGuire: Yup. I'm pretty open minded and I have confidence in Bruce Allen to put together a great draft. His track record speaks for itself the past few years.

D.Breault: I caught a couple Kentucky games through the season to get a glimpse of Woodson and have taken a liking to Dicky Lyons.

D.Breault: Ok Matt. Thank you for your time.

D.Breault: As I said I really appreciate it

Matt McGuire: No problem. Check out WalterFootball.com for all your draft needs. I truly feel like Walter Cherepinsky and I put together one of the best football sites on the internet, especially for the Draft.

D.Breault: And you sir, please check out NFLdraftdog.com and Pewterkrew.com

D.Breault: For information on the Bucs, Pewterkrew is an excellent, and free, site to check out.

D.Breault: OK, Happy Holidays to you and the McGuire crew. Will you stop back after draft?

Matt McGuire: Why not? Have me back at any time.

D.Breault: Sounds great, look forward too it. Thanks again for stopping by, have a Happy Easter.

Matt McGuire: peace

Daryl Martin-Breault
Admin/Draft Coverage- www.pewterkrew.com
Senior Writer- www.nfldraftdog.com